IAMC Newsletter – 2017 edition

You are reading the newsletter of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium. This newsletter will be delivered annually, with the objective of keeping the community apprised of recent and future events.

News and Updates

The ninth annual IAMC meeting (2016)

Report by Heleen van Soest (PBL)

Participants of IAMC meeting taking place at Grand Gongda Jianguo Hotel, Beijing, from 5-7 December 2016

Participants of IAMC meeting taking place at Grand Gongda Jianguo Hotel, Beijing, from 5-7 December 2016

The 9th Annual IAMC Meeting was hosted by the Energy Research Institute (ERI) in Beijing, from 5-7 December, 2016. Around 200 representatives from the IAM and collaborating communities joined the meeting with over 40 oral and 40 poster presentations. Naturally, the meeting started with an IPCC/UNFCCC session, addressing IPCC priorities and implications for IAM work in the next IPCC cycle. The latest findings on 1.5°C scenarios were presented, followed by presentations on the financial implications of transition pathways.

Parallel sessions on the first day dealt with “analysis of climate change, climate impacts and adaptation in IAM applications”, and “global deep transformation pathways”, with the latter looking at 1.5°C scenarios in more detail. The second day was focused on “From climate policy to broader sustainable development analysis: New IAM analyses on the climate policy – sustainable development nexus and sustainable development strategies”. This session put climate in a wider development perspective, highlighting the need to coordinate research on various SDGs. It was noted that SDGs can help incentivize climate policy at the national level. Other parallel sessions addressed “National and regional transformation pathways, including INDCs and mid-century mitigation strategies; Uncertainty and the use of IAM projections; and Ratcheting up the NDCs – national roadmaps consistent with the global objectives of 1.5°C and 2°C”. New this year was a session dedicated to the CD-LINKS project, with presentations on country-level scenario analyses.

The closing session reported back on the first two days. Three broad categories of research challenges were identified: emissions mitigation, impacts/ adaptation/ vulnerability, and the multiplicity of concurrent goals and objectives. As such, this annual meeting reflected the changed policy landscape, with most notably the Paris Agreement and the SDGs, very well. Secondly, the meeting also underscored the need for a greater focus on both the local and the social level. Participants concluded that, to tackle these challenges, collaboration is needed between national and global model teams. Furthermore, bridges with other scientific communities need to be build or reinforced.

The IAMC annual award 2016 was given to Keywan Riahi (IIASA) and the award for the best poster was given to Heleen van Soest (PBL, poster: “Low-Emission Pathways in 11 Major Economies: Comparison of Optimal Pathways and the INDCs”).

The tenth annual IAMC meeting (December 5-7, 2017, in Recife, Brazil)

Report by Roberto Schaeffer (COPPE)

This year, the Tenth Annual Meeting will be hosted by COPPE of the University of Rio de Janeiro at the Sheraton Reserva do Paiva Hotel, in Recife, Brazil, from December 5-7, 2017. In the same vein of the previous meetings, the purpose of this year ́s IAMC Annual Meeting is to (1) present and discuss the state of the art in integrated assessment modeling, (2) review the status of ongoing community activities including both multi-model studies and the activities of the IAMC Scientific Working Groups, (3) facilitate interaction with collaborating communities, and (4) evaluate and revisit the priorities of the integrated assessment community.

As with past meetings, a major part of this year’s meeting will be devoted to parallel sessions on cutting edge areas of integrated assessment model development and research. And, as with last year’s meeting, a poster session will be held which is open to poster presentations covering any topic of interest (and which will be grouped thematically at the meeting). Each parallel session will also have an open group discussion of key priorities in these areas of research. It is expected that each session will include six to eight short presentations, potentially including several invited presentations. The poster session has been a highlight of several annual meetings now. It provides a great opportunity to have more in-depth conversations about new work.

The selected topics for this year ́s meeting are (see the IAMC website for a more detailed description):

  1. From climate policy to broader sustainable development analysis: New IAM analyses on the climate policy – sustainable development nexus and sustainable development strategies
  2. Land-based mitigation. Analysis of effectiveness and possible consequences for sustainable development.
  3. Analysis of climate change, climate impacts and adaptation in IAM applications
  4. Global deep transformation pathways
  5. National and regional transformation pathways, including INDCs and mid-century mitigation strategies
  6. Uncertainty and the use of IAM projections
  7. Climate policy and finance (including energy markets).
  8. Demand for different resources and the role of behavioural change.

Abstract submissions should be completed before Saturday July 22th 2017, and can be submitted via the form on the IAMC website.

The Sheraton Reserva do Paiva Hotel, in Recife, Brazil.

The Sheraton Reserva do Paiva Hotel, in Recife, Brazil.

IAMC, IIASA and IPCC sign collaboration agreement on scenario databases for the AR6

Report by Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Volkey Krey (IIASA) and Daniel Huppmann (IIASA)

Since the fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IAMC is supporting the IPCC in the systematic collection and distribution of IAM scenarios. Related databases, such as the AR5 scenario database have become important resources for the scientific community, ensuring transparency, visibility and efficient dissemination of IAM scenarios.

To continue this successful collaboration, an agreement was recently signed by WG III of the IPCC, the IAMC, and IIASA to establish comprehensive scenario databases for the forthcoming “Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C” (SR1.5, 2018) and the “Sixth Assessment Report” (AR6, 2021/2022). A call for scenario submissions for the SR1.5 scenario database was circulated to the scientific community, with submissions being accepted until December 1, 2017, for inclusion in the analysis of SR1.5. In addition to the open submission process, the SR1.5 scenario database will also include the IAM implementations of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) and scenarios from the IAM-community projects ADVANCE, CD-LINKS, and multiple ongoing projects of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF). The SR1.5 and AR6 scenario datasets will be publicly released following the publication of the reports to guarantee also in the future transparency and accessibility of the underlying research, including effective dissemination of the scenario datasets compiled for the IPCC reports.

For further information on the IPCC timeline for the forthcoming Special Reports and the AR6, please see the following schedule.

Scientific Working Group updates

Scenarios Working Group

The Scientific Working Group on Scenarios – led by Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Detlef van Vuuren (PBL) and Tom Kram (PBL) – finalized in January the Special Issue (editorial) on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways that was published in Global Environmental Change. Since then, the work has focussed on ensuring a hand-over of the data for the climate modelling community. For this, the data needed to be harmonised for the starting years with historical data sources. The harmonised data for emissions and land use will be available from August onwards, and will be subsequently used for “CMIP6” (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, a comparison project of climate models). Another activity has focussed on adding new scenarios to the SSP set. The most important are scenarios aimed at the 1.5 degree target. The current data (consistent with the Special Issue) on the SSPs can be found at the SSP Database website, as made available by the FEEM, IIASA PIK, PBL, PNNL and NIES modelling teams. The scenario working group aim to open up the database for submission of more SSP-based model projections.

(For your convenience, we are also providing the downloadable PDF Version.)

Future Events

Call for Abstracts

Contact IAMC

If you have feedback or suggestions for future newsletters (e.g. events or activities) please do not hesitate to send them to Mariesse.vanSluisveld@pbl.nl For specific research and IAMC community related questions, please use the contact form on the website.