SMA-SSP Scenarios Workshop

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July 16, 2011 - July 17, 2011
8:30 am - 6:00 pm

Changwon, South Korea

Workshop to Explore the New SMA/SSP Approach – July 16-17, 2011 in Changwon, South Korea

Workshop to Explore the New SMA/SSP Approach

Goal of the workshop: To share what we are learning as we experiment with the new Scenario Matrix Architecture (SMA) and the Shared Socio-ecosystem Pathways (SSP).

July 16, 2011

Background

This session is intended to review the basics. We want to review the history of scenarios and their use, core concepts that have been developed “Framework paper”. Also, we want to review developments from the IPCC WG3 workshop on Scenarios. (It would be nice if their work and this body of work were coordinated.) Finally, this session contains a report on the IPCC WG2 meeting and his presentation of the SMA/SSP concepts.

8:30 AM – Welcome – Hoesung Lee

8:35 AM – Objective of the meeting – Jae Edmonds

8:45 AM – Scenarios in the IPCC and other Assessment Processes: SRES, RCPs, and beyond – Nebojsa Nakicenovic

9:15 AM – The Framework Paper – Basic concepts, feedback, and work remaining – Detlef van Vuuren and Elmar Kriegler Part 1 – Part 2

10:00 AM – Report on the IPCC WG3 Scenario Workshop – Leon Clarke

10:20 AM – Report on the Discussion of Scenarios at the IPCC WG2 LA meeting – Kristine Ebi

10:40 AM – COFFEE BREAK

Integrated SMA/SSP Research

This session focuses on presentations that integrate or coordinate information about the three key elements of the SMA/SSPs by groups that are experimenting in developing SSPs. These elements include:

  • Storylines
  • Integrated assessment modeling inputs and outputs.

Other quantitative indices. Groups are not limited to integrated assessment modeling teams, and it is encouraged that presentations include multiple presenters if this enables examination of all three elements. However, groups that have worked on any of the elements are solicited. Each presentation should be limited to 25 minutes of presentation with 15 minutes of discussion.

11:10 AM – Experiments by the GCAM group – Richard Moss & Jae Edmonds

11:50 AM – Experiments by the NCAR group – Brian O”Neil & Vanessa Schweizer

12:30 AM – LUNCH BREAK (On Our Own)

Coupling to Climate Model Experiments

This session focuses on the mapping between radiative forcing and climate models. The climate modeling teams have run ensemble calculations based on limits to radiative forcing. The good news is that there will be literally hundreds of model outputs from which to choose when undertaking IAV research. That is also the bad news. We need to hear from people who are thinking about this problem.

1:30 PM – Options for exploring the range of climatic change – Seita Emori

1:50 PM – Discussion

Integrated SMA/SSP Research (cont.)

2:30 PM – Experiments by the FEEM group – Emanuele Massetti

3:10 PM – Experiments by the PIK group – Elmar Kriegler

3:50 PM – COFFEE BREAK

4:10 AM – Experiments by the AIM group – Mikiko Kainuma

4:50 PM – Experiments by the MESSAGE group – Keywan Riahi 

5:30 PM – Experiments by the IMAGE group – Detlef van Vuuren

6:10 PM – ADJOURN

Dinner Hosted by IPCC Vice-Chair, Hoesung Lee

July 17, 2011

Coupling to Climate Model Experiments (Continued)

8:30 AM -Options for exploring the range of climatic change – Kathy Hibbard (via web link)

8:45 AM – Options for exploring the range of climatic change – Won-Tae

9:00 AM – Discussion

Options for Demographic and Economic Assumptions

This session focuses on identifying options for demographic and economic assumptions that could be used by researchers in framing the new scenarios.

9:30 AM – Options for representing demographic and economic assumptions to span the range of future developments over the 21st century – Wolfgang Lutz

10:00 AM – Discussion

10:30 AM – COFFEE BREAK

Using SMA/SSP Information

This session focuses on issues which arise in the use of scenarios as an external reference. These presentations should report on research that has used SMA/SSP-type information and on the issues that arise. These talks and discussion should span potential users of SMA/SSP information ranging from global sector modelers (e.g. global agricultural markets) to analysts examining specific place-based activities (e.g. dealing with health implications or episodic urban heat events).

11:00 AM -Utilizing SMA/SSP/CS Scenarios in IAV Research – Tim Carter

11:30 AM – Utilizing Scenarios in AgMIP – Jerry Nelson (via web link)

12:00 AM – LUNCH BREAK (Hosted by IPCC Vice Chair, Hoesung Lee)

1:00 PM – Panel Discussion of Utilizing SMA/SSP/CS Scenarios in IAV Research

– John Agard

– Kris Ebi

– Taoyuan Wei

– Richard Moss

2:00 PM – Discussion

Coupling across Scales

This session focuses on the practical questions that emerge in moving from the higher-order scales that are typical of the integrated assessment models to those needed to do geographically explicit research.

2:30 PM – Experiments Downscaling Socioeconomic Data to Finer Spatial Scales – Keywan Riahi and Detlef van Vuuren

3:00 PM – Utilizing coarse resolution scenarios as a point of reference in developing background scenarios for IAV – Monica Zurek (via web link)

3:30 PM – COFFEE BREAK

Lessons and Next Steps

This session is a wrap up session. The main theme is to look back on the presentations and see what has been learned and to discuss research needs moving forward to implement the SMA/SSP paradigm.

4:00 PM – The Path Forward – Session Chair Elmar Kriegler

Brief Comments by Brian O”Neill, Keywan Riahi, Kris Ebi, Richard Moss, Ottmar Edenhofer

4:30 PM – GENERAL DISCUSSION

Issues to be discussed:

  • The workshops in Boulder, Laxenburg, and The Netherlands
  • Key decisions that will need to be made in creating the scenario sets:
    • How to model Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs),
    • How to decide on SSP assumptions,
    • Coordination with non-IAM indices and narratives
    • How many scenarios?
  • Setting priorities for scenario examination by IAV and IAM researchers.
  • Documentation of the scenarios (special journal issue?)
  • Communication and Dissemination
  • Guidelines

5:30 PM – Wrap-up

5:40 PM – ADJOURN