IAMC 11th Annual Meeting – Programme and Presentations

 

Day 1: Tuesday, November 13th, 2018
PLENARY SESSIONS
Opening Plenary
National policies and global stock take
IPCC, scenarios and IAMs
PARALLEL SESSIONS

Deep mitigation pathways 1

Integrated assessment of climate impacts 1

Sustainable finance, investments, and scenarios for financial disclosure 1

Deep mitigation pathways 2

Integrated assessment of climate impacts 2

Analysis of possible future disruptive trends and extension of SSP applications 1

POSTER SESSION 1
POSTER SESSION 2

 

Day 2: Wednesday, November 14th, 2018
PARALLEL SESSIONS

Deep mitigation pathways 3

Integrated assessment of climate impacts 3

Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment 1

National mid-century mitigation strategies 1

Integrated assessment of climate impacts 4

Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment 2

National mid-century mitigation strategies 2

Attaining   multiple SDGs 1

Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment 3

Land-based mitigation strategies 1

National mid-century mitigation strategies 3

Attaining multiple SDGs 2

Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment 4

Demand for energy and food, including the impact of lifestyle change 1

 

Day 3: Thursday, November 15th, 2018

The role of the financial sector in decarbonisation pathways

New visualisation concepts for IAM results

Community Activities

Scientific Working Group Meetings

 

Detailed Programme

Day 1: Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Opening Plenary  

Welcome and introductory remarks
Charlina VITCHEVA (JRC)

Introduction to the meeting
John WEYANT (Stanford)

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National policies and global stock take                                 
Chair: Stephanie WALDHOFF (PNNL)

National climate policy in Spain
Lorena PRADO ORCOYEN (Spain)

Climate policy in the EU
Tom VAN IERLAND (EC)

National climate policies in China
Xu HUAQING (NCSC)

IAM contribution of the global stocktake (CD-LINKS/COMMIT)
Detlef VAN VUUREN (PBL)

Panel on current climate policies

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IPCC, scenarios and IAMs  
Chair: Shinichiro FUJIMORI (NIES)

Presentation on main findings IPCC Special Report on “1.5 degrees warming”
Elmar KRIEGLER (PIK)

Presentation on the IPCC Special Report on land
Katherine CALVIN (PNNL)

IAM contribution to the CMIP6
Detlef VAN VUUREN (PBL), Matthew GIDDEN (IIASA)

New insights from climate modelling on scenarios
Chris JONES (MetOffice)

Outlook on IPCC AR6 and the role of IAM-based scenarios
James SKEA (IPCC)

Panel on IPCC AR6 and IAMs

Reflections on the Nobel Prize for Bill Nordhaus
John WEYANT (Stanford)

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PARALLEL SESSION

Deep mitigation pathways 1

Introduction
Toshihiko MASUI

The Paris Agreement requires deep reductions of all major GHGs. In this session, work was presented various teams that focused on long-term deep mitigation strategies. A first key theme in the presentations was the use of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Four presentation discussed how different assumptions regarding CDR (e.g. discount rate, overall goal, capture rates, the number of CDR options, and the relationships with other measures) could significantly influence its use and thus also the timing of mitigation strategies. This led to a wider range of CDR use than often presented earlier in key IAM studies. A subsequent presentation also discussed how CDR could potentially even be reduced further by deep changes in consumption patterns. In other presentations, the focus was more on the implications of deep mitigation for specific sectors or technologies – such as electrification and industry. Finally, by focusing on the power sector – some presentation also focused on the impacts of deep mitigation on other issues such as air pollution.

Evaluating Different Implementations of the UN Climate Target in Integrated Assessment Models and the Effect on the Use of BECCS
Daniel JOHANSSON, Mariliis Lehtveer

The impact of the discount rate on deep mitigation pathways
Laurent DROUET, Johannes Emmerling, Massimo Tavoni, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Detlef van Vurren

The interdependent roles of capture rates for fossil fuel CCS and BECCS CDR for climate stabilisation towards the Paris Agreement goals
James GLYNN, Paul Deane, Richard Millar, Niall Mac Dowell, Myles Allen, et al.

The Role of Direct Air Capture in Deep Mitigation Pathways
Giulia REALMONTE, Ajay Gambhir, James Glynn, Adam Hawkes, Alex Koberle, et al

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PARALLEL SESSION
Deep mitigation pathways 2

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies
Arnulf Grubler, Charlie Wilson, Nuno Bento, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Volker KREY, et al

Decarbonization pathways for industry sectors: Analysis of reduction potentials using a global IAM and a technology-detailed European model
Mariësse van Sluisvelda, Andries HOF, Harmen-Sytze de Boera, Clemens Schneider, Stefan Lechtenböhmer, et al

Demonstrating knock-on effects of Deep Decarbonization
Haewon McJeon, Seth MONTEITH

What Future for Electrofuels? – Analysis of Cost-Competitiveness of Electrofuels for Transport in Global Climate Mitigation
Mariliis LEHTVEER, Selma Brynolf, Maria Grahn

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PARALLEL SESSION
Integrated assessment of climate impacts 1

Introduction
Tom KRAM, Shinichiro FUJIMORI

Estimating climate change impacts on crop yields for integrated assessment modeling
Stephanie T. WALDHOFF, Ian Sue Wing, James Edmonds, Xuesong Zhang, Guoyong Leng

Climate Change Vulnerability of Future Calorific Supply
Ian Sue Wing, Enrica DE CIAN, Malcolm Mistry

Health co-benefits and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways
Jon SAMPEDRO, Iñaki Arto, Mikel González-Eguino, Anil Markandya, Cristina Pizarro-Irizar, et al

On the relative contributions of human systems and compounding climate impacts on global water scarcity and groundwater depletion
Mohamad HEJAZI, Min Chen, Sean Turner, Jae Edmonds, Chris Vernon, et al

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PARALLEL SESSION
Integrated assessment of climate impacts 2

Applying a water-energy-food nexus framework at sub-national scale in Latin America to Facilitate Integrated Infrastructure Investment Planning
Thomas WILD, Leon Clarke, Mohamad Hejazi, Zarrar Khan, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, et al

The impact of Climate Change on long-term renewable energy production
David GERNAAAT, Seleshi Yalew, Detlef van Vuuren

Integrated assessment of climate and population change: A first pass
Antonin Pottier, Marc Fleurbaey, Aurélie MÉJEAN, Stéphane Zuber

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PARALLEL SESSION
Sustainable finance, investments, and scenarios for financial disclosure 1

Introduction
John WEYANT, Elmar KRIEGLER, Nico BAUER

Does climate policy have an impact on current accounts and the net foreign asset position of world regions?
Marian Leimbach, Nico BAUER

The macroeconomic impacts of stranded fossil fuel assets
Jean François MERCURE, Hector Pollitt, Jorge E. Viñuales, Neil R. Edwards, Phil B. Holden, et al

Implications of the Paris Agreement for Stranded Assets in Latin America and the Caribbean
Matthew Binsted, Gokul Iyer, James EDMONDS, Haewon McJeon, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, et al

The role of financing in EU energy efficiency policies
Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragiadakis, Gokul Zazias, Pelopidas Siskos, Alessia De Vita, Ioannis CHARALAMPIDIS

Financial De-risking to Unlock Africa’s Renewable Energy Potential
Bart Sweerts, Francesco Dalla Longa, Bob VAN DER ZWAAN

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PARALLEL SESSION
Analysis of possible future disruptive trends and extension of SSP applications 1

Optimal emissions path under multiple uncertainties: the role of the decision criteria
Nicolas TACONET, Céline Guivarch

Electrifying transport slashes cost of climate change mitigation
Son H. Kim, Stephanie Waldhoff, Allen Fawcett, James McFarland, James EDMONDS

Decoupling livestock from land use through industrial feed production pathways
Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Ilje Pikaar, S. Matassa, Korneel Rabaey, Alexander POPP, et al

Evaluating the high-resolution water stress likelihood from China’s coal-fired power plants under shared social-economic pathways (SSPs)
Wenjia CAI, Haoran Li, Jingxuan Hui, Chaoji Cao

Sustainability pathways (SSP1) fundamentals for cities: factor analysis in three case studies
Miho KAMEI

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POSTER SESSION 1
Chair: Brian O’NEILL

Climate system representation in IAMs

1      Reappraise the Social Cost of Carbon Based on the Fund_Hector Coupled Model
Tianpeng Wang, Fei TENG

 

Demand for energy and food, including the impact of lifestyle change

2      Environmental and economic impacts of global dietary changes in Brazil
Bruno S. L. CUNHA, Angelo Gurgel, Rafael Garaffa, Pedro Rochedo, André F. P. Lucena, et al

3      Implications of large-scale bioenergy deployment on energy demand and agricultural supply: an inter-sectoral perspective from the IMACLIM-NLU model
Florian LEBLANC, Thierry Brunelle, Patrice Dumas, Ruben Bibas, Chloé Pelletier, et al

4      Buildings‘ energy efficiency in mitigation pathways: an integrated assessment model perspective
Renato RODRIGUES, Antoine Levesque, Robert C. Pietzcker, Gunnar Luderer

5      The Potential of Behavioural Change for Climate Change Mitigation: A Case Study for the European Union
Dirk-Jan VAN DE VEN, Mikel González-Eguino, Iñaki Arto

 

Analysis of possible future disruptive trends / Extension of SSP applications

6      An alternative methodology to build a baseline for CGE models
Luis REY, Krzysztof Wojtowicz, Umed Temursho

7      Adding Spatial Age Structure to the SSPs: A case study for the continental U.S.
Erich Striessnig, Jing Gao, Brian O’NEILL, Leiwen Jiang

8      Connected, Autonomous and Electric Vehicles: modeling the macroeconomic and environmental impacts of future mobility trends scenarios
Marie TAMBA, Bert Saveyn

 

Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment

9      Integrated Assessment Models: Challenges and Prospects
Arnaud Diemer, Ganna Gladkykh, Florian DIERICKX, Nathalie Splitter

10    Transparent and reproducible processing of model inputs with flexible spatial aggregation
Lavinia BAUMSTARK, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Anastasis Giannousakis, David Klein

11    Lead emissions from lead-acid batteries industry based on integrated lead flow and life cycle analysis in China from 2004 to 2030
Sha CHEN, Zhenyue Lian, Sumei Li

12    A bibliometric analysis of the model validation literature
Sibel EKER, Elena Rovenskaya, Simon Langan, Michael Obersteiner

13    CMIP6 & IPCC SR1.5 – Leveraging open-source tools and development best practices for integrated assessment modeling and analysis
Matthew GIDDEN, Daniel Huppmann

14    Reference Energy System Modeling with R and energyRt
Oleg LUGOVOY, Vladimir Potashnikov

15    Ten ways to solve Integrated Assessment Model with open-source software
Oleg LUGOVOY

16    Global sensitivity analysis in integrated assessment modeling
Alena MIFTAKHOVA

17    Does Solar Geoengineering Devalue Research on Climate Response?
Elnaz ROSHAN

18    The effect of different endogenous cost learning methodologies including uncertainties on the uptake of Carbon Capture and Storage technologies under a carbon cost scenario
Julia Sachs, Niccolò Bitossi, Sara BUDINIS, Sara Giarola, Adam Hawkes

19    European Commission’s Competence Centre on Modelling
Paul SMITS, Sven Langedijk, Nicole Ostlaender, Giulia Listorti, Daniel Albrecht, et al

20    Emulation of projected economic impacts of climate change: Mimicking integrated assessment models coupled with bio/physical impact models
Jun’ya TAKAKURA, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Qian Zhou, Naota Hanasak, et al

21    Methodological modeling innovation in the field of integrated assessment interlinked with lifecycle assessment
Koji TOKIMATSU

 

Attaining multiple SDGs

22    India’s energy-environment synergies & trade-offs based on Integrated Assessment and Modelling
Ritu Mathur, Swapnil SHEKHAR

23    China’s deep decarbonization effort and its co-benefit of environmental health effect
Xi YANG, Xiaoqian Xi

24    Examining the NDC (SSP2) against likely (SSP4) and sustainable (SSP1) scenarios for India by 2030: A Sustainable Development framework to India’s Climate Policy
Sujatha Byravan, Mohd Sahil ALI

25    SDGs under the climate change threat: an impact assessment in the agricultural sector
Lorenza CAMPAGNOLO, Elisa Delpiazzo

26    Energy needs for adaptation: what can we learn from Paris Agreement’s NDCs?
Enrica DE CIAN, Marinella Davide, Alexis Bernigaud

27    Optimal climate strategy with mitigation, carbon removal, and solar geoengineering.
Mariia BELAIA and David Keith

28    Air pollution health benefits of climate policy for major economies
Sebastian RAUNER, Gunnar Luderer

29    Sustainable Development Goals: Analysing Interactions with Integrated Assessment Models
Heleen L. van Soest, Detlef P. VAN VUUREN, Jérôme Hilaire, Jan C. Minx, Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen, et al

30    Water Implications by mitigation scenarios for the Brazilian energy sector
Eveline Vasquez-Arroyo, Rebeca Orosco, Pedro R.R. Rochedo, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto SCHAEFFER

 

Open submissions

31    Organising policy-relevant knowledge for climate action: Integrated Assessment Modelling, the IPCC, and the emergence of a collective expertise on socioeconomic emission scenarios
Christophe CASSEN, Béatrice Cointe, Alain Nadaï

32    An Open-source Tool for Analyzing and Visualizing the Mitigation Scenarios Data from IAMs
Jiayang WANG, Diego Silva Herran, Masahiro Sugiyama

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POSTER SESSION 2
Chair: Bas VAN RUIJVEN

Sustainable finance, investments, and scenarios for financial disclosure

33    Climate fInance and investment allocation in a CGE model
Rafael GARAFFA, Angelo Costa Gurgel, Bruno S. L. Cunha, André F. P. Lucena, Alexandre Szklo, et al

 

Integrated assessment of climate impacts

34    Climate impacts in Europe: an economic perspective (JRC PESETA III project)
Wojtek Szewczyk, Juan-Carlos CISCAR, Ignazio Mongelli

35    Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: An Analytical Framework and Application in the U.S. Agriculture Sector
Stephanie Waldhoff, Jia LI, Richard Moss, Xuesong Zhang, Jefferson Cole, et al

36    Economic impact assessment of heat stress on labour productivity: a case study of Europe
Anton ORLOV

37    Approach to energy and related SDGs on the mid and long term using Message
Sebastien RICHET, Herve Nifenecker

 

Deep mitigation pathways

38    Understanding the role of international shipping in high mitigation scenarios: proposal of an integrated assessment methodology to define the optimal shipping CO2 reduction target
Eduardo Casseres, Alexandre Szklo, André Lucena, Roberto SCHAEFFER, Pedro Rochedo, et al

39    Relationship between electrification rate and electricity demand on climate change mitigation
Shogo SAKAMOTO

40    The price of stupidity: exploring the sensitivity of mitigation scenarios to societal choices
Bas VAN RUIJVEN, Oliver Fricko, Fei Guo, Volker Krey

41    Integrated Assessment of Economic and Environmental Impacts of Expanding Supply of Electric Vehicles over Transportation and Electricity Industries
Insook KIM, Dongwoo Kim

42    Alternative pathways for deep emission reduction with low energy demands and low carbon prices considering a car- and ride-sharing society
Keigo AKIMOTO, Fuminori Sano, Keii Gi

43    Emission effects of fossil fuel subsidy removal
Jessica Jewell, David McCollum, Johannes Emmerling, Christoph Bertram, Volker KREY, et al

44    Aligning development and stringent climate objective – Lessons from a second best modelling framework
Meriem HAMDI-CHERIF, Aurélie Méjean, Céline Guivarch, Julien Lefèvre

45    Pathways toward Zero-Carbon Electricity Required for Climate Stabilization
Richard Audoly, Adrien Vogt-Schilb, Céline Guivarch, Alexander PFEIFFER

46    Future emissions from Global Shipping: a critical analysis of the prospects for LNG-fuelled ships using the MUSE Integrated Assessment Model
Daniel J. G. CROW, Jamie Spiers, Sara Giarola, Adam Hawkes

 

Land-based mitigation strategies

47    Biochar Reverse Mining in Brazil: Coupling Land Reclamation to a Negative Emissions Technology
Fabio da Silva, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto SCHAEFFER

48    Global climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Steef HANSSEN, Vassilis Daioglou, Zoran Steinmann, Detlef Van Vuuren, Mark Huijbregts

49    Exploring Mitigation Strategies in Cropland-based Agriculture: Some Empirical Evidences from India
Shreya SOME, Joyashree Roy, Arpita Ghose

50    Organic Agriculture, Climate Mitigation and Human Health: A Tradeoff Analysis for Brazil
Gerd Angelkorte, Alexandre KOBERLE, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer

 

National mid-century mitigation strategies

51    Can India Grow and Live Within a 1.5 Degree GHG Emissions Budget?
Kirit Parikh, Jyoti Parikh, Probal GHOSH

52    Political will of Indian government behind India’s mid century target and revised NDC
Yagyavalk BHATT

53    Managing India’s Mid Century Carbon Strategies and Policy Implication: An Assessment of NDC using MESSAGEix-India Integrated Modelling Framework
Anindya BHATTACHARYA, Simi Thambi, Oliver Fricko

54    Economic impact of NDC and the role of electricity sector in Korea
Donghyun CHOI, Jintae Kim, Cheolhung Cho

55    Committed CO2 emissions of coal-fired power plants in China
Xiaoli ZHANG, Xueqin Cui, Ke Wang, Ji Zou

56    An application of GCAM to assessment of the Mid-Century Strategy for Canada’s Deep Decarbonization
Christopher Roney, Rui Xing, Haewon McJeon, Evan G. R. DAVIES

57    Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?
Michel DEN ELZEN, Takeshi Kuramochi, Niklas Höhne, Jasmin Cantzler, Kendall Esmeijer, et al

58    Emission reductions needed in major economies for meeting 2 degree Celsius based on cost-optimal scenarios
Michel DEN ELZEN, Kendall Esmeijer, Heleen van Soest

59    An emissions quantity target can reduce China’s climate mitigation risks
Anastasis Giannousakis, Lavinia Baumstark, Elmar KRIEGLER

60    Energy Transition, CO2 Mitigation and Air Pollutant Emission Reduction: Scenario Analysis from IPAC Model
Kejun JIANG, Chenmin He, Sha Chen, Jia Liu, Sun Kuo, et al

61    Mid-century transition towards a carbon neutral economy: the case of France
Julien LEFÈVRE

62    Assessing Carbon Lock-Ins in Developing Economies
Aman Malik, Christoph BERTRAM

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Day 2: Wednesday, November 14, 2018

 

PARALLEL SESSION
Deep mitigation pathways 3

Low stabilization scenarios with multiple CDR options
Nico BAUER, Elmar Kriegler, Jessica Strefler, David Klein, Florian Humpenöder

Health co-benefits from air pollutant reduction through coal-fired power plant cancellations
Ryna Yiyun CUI, Jon Sampedro, Haewon McJeon, Nathan Hultman, Linlang He, et al

Exploring European Union deep mitigation alternative pathways
Renato RODRIGUES, Robert Pietzcker

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PARALLEL SESSION
National mid-century mitigation strategies 1

Introduction
Roberto SCHAEFFER

Three Parallel Sessions were scheduled for the topic on “National mid-century mitigations strategies”. In the first Parallel Session presentations varied from a discussion on the implications of effort-sharing approaches for nation carbon budgets, to climate mitigation pathways in India and Japan.
Presentations in Parallel Session 2 focused mainly on Brazil and China, covering discussions on research on financial needs for implementing NDCs and mid-century strategies, to non-CO2 GHG mitigation potentials, to emissions trajectories in a well-bellow 2°C world, and to future bioelectricity production potentials given land-use restrictions.
In Parallel Session 3 presentations covered sustainable and economic energy transition policies in South Korea, embodied emissions in French trade, and a multi-scale analytical approach for understanding the implication of state, local, and business efforts to reduce emissions using the US as a case study. Finally, during the final hour, a discussion was held by four invited panelists, Jim Skea, Leon Clark, Roberto Schaeffer and Sha Fu, on the possible contribution of higher granularity, recent national mitigation studies in developing countries using national IAMs for the upcoming IPCC AR6.

Implications of effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets, emission pathways and financial flows
Nicole J. VAN DEN BERG, Heleen L. van Soest, Andries F. Hof, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Detlef P. van Vuuren

The role of carbon pricing and technological developments for achieving low carbon growth in India
Basanta K. PRADHAN, Joydeep Ghosh

Sustainable Development, Uncertainties, and India’s Climate Policy: Pathways towards Nationally Determined Contribution and Mid-Century Strategy
Vaibhav CHATURVEDI, Poonam Nagar Koti, Anjali Ramakrishnan Chordia

Characterizing Japan’s energy pathways for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study
Masahiro SUGIYAMA, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kenichi Wada, Jiayang Wang, Ken Oshiro, et al

New integrated assessment modeling framework: incorporating energy-economic, technology, power generation, and land-use models
Shinichiro FUJIMORI, Hiroto Shiraki, Ken Oshiro, Tomoko Hasegawa

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PARALLEL SESSION
Integrated assessment of climate impacts 3

Introduction
Juan-Carlos CISCAR, Stephanie WALDHOFF

How do impacts of climate change on the global scale affect individuals?
Asbjørn AAHEIM, Orlov Anton, Dhakal Kabindra

Assessing Socioeconomic and Climate-related Uncertainties on Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)
Xuanming SU, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kaoru Tachiiri, Hancheng Dai, Katsumasa Tanaka, et al

What does Paris mean for Africa?
Kelly DE BRUIN, Victoria Ayubu

A multi-model assessment of economy-wide effects from impacts of and adaptation to coastal flooding due to sea level rise in a well-below 2°C world
Thomas Schinko, Laurent Drouet, Zoi Vrontisi, Andries HOF, Jochen Hinkel, et al

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PARALLEL SESSION
Integrated assessment of climate impacts 4

Representing the Earth System in an Integrated Assessment Model
Katherine CALVIN, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Andrew Jones, Xiaoying Shi, Alan Di Vittorio, et al

Some Observations on Simple Climate Models
Robert GIESEKE, Zebedee Nicholls

Hector – a computationally-efficient, open-source, community-based global and regional climate emulator
Corinne HARTIN, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Robert Link, Ben Vega-Westhoff, Ryan Sriver, et al

Statistical Approximation of High-Dimensional Climate Models
Alena MIFTAKHOVA, Kenneth L. Judd, Thomas S. Lontzek, Karl Schmedders

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PARALLEL SESSION
Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment 1

Introduction
Bas VAN RUIJVEN, Peter RUSS

SENSES – innovative methods to communicate IAM scenario information to the stakeholder world
Cornelia AUER

Are Interactive Web-Tools with Large Scenario Databases Worth the Effort? An Experimental Study with Non-Experts
Georgios XEXAKIS, Evelina Trutnevyte

A feasibility study on bioenergy uptake in the industrial sector
Sara BUDINIS, Ivan Garcia Kerdan, Julia Sachs, Sara Giarola, Adam Hawkes

Bioenergy technology representation and climate change mitigation strategies
Vassilis DAIOGLOU, Steven Rose, Nico Bauer, Alban Kitous, Matteo Muratori

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PARALLEL SESSION
Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment 2

Linking Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for improved prospective product assessment
Angelica MENDOZA BELTRAN, Brian Cox, Chris Mutel, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jeroen Guinée, et al

Advancing Energy Access Modelling with Geographic Information System Data
Francesco Dalla Longa, Teun Strikkers, Tom Kober, Bob VAN DER ZWAAN

Including bottom-up end-of-pipe abatement technologies in a large-scale global model for climate policy assessment
Matthias WEITZEL, Toon Vandyck, Bert Saveyn

Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks
Giacomo GRASSI

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PARALLEL SESSION
National mid-century mitigation strategies 2

Research on Financial Needs in Implementing China’s Nationally Determined Contributions and Mid-Century Strategy
Qimin Chai, Sha FU, Xinyuan Wen

Study on China’s Mid-to-Long Term Low Carbon Development Strategy Target and Roadmap
Junling LIU, Keb Wang, Jibc Zou

Strengthen the Non-CO2 greenhouse gas reduction in China’s NDC and LEDS
Fei TENG, Xin Wang, Xi Yang

Brazil emissions trajectories in a well-below 2oC world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system
Alexandre C. KÖBERLE, Pedro Rochedo, Andre F.P Lucena, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer

Brazil’s future technical potential of bio-electricity production considering land-use constraints
Ivan GARCIA KERDAN, Lucas Lyrio de Oliveira, Celma de Oliveira Ribeiro, Claudio Augusto Oller do Nascimento, Erik Eduardo Rego, et al

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PARALLEL SESSION
National mid-century mitigation strategies 3

Combined Top-down and Bottom-up Investigation for Finding Sustainable and Economic Energy Transition Policies in South Korea
Jung-Hwa WUI, Somi Jung, Dongwoo Kim

Embodied Emission in French Trade under National Climate Constraints for a Low Carbon Society
Gaëlle LE TREUT, Antoine Teixeira

The America’s Pledge Analysis: A Multi-Scale Analytical Approach for Understanding the Implications of State, Local, and Business Efforts to Reduce Emissions
Leon CLARKE, Haewon McJeon, Kristin Igusky, Koben Calhoun, Nate Hultman, et al

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PARALLEL SESSION
Attaining multiple SDGs 1
Introduction
Detlef VAN VUUREN

Several IAM-groups have started to focus on the question how different sustainable development goals can be obtained. In the session, some key examples of this at the global and regional level were presented. Many of the current exercises are still related to the core of IAM modelling, i.e. the representation of production and consumption of energy, food and water and how to find a way to align these with goals related to climate, preventing biodiversity loss and providing full access to these resources. The first presentation, however, started from a much broader question, i.e. determinants of subjective well-being. In the various presentations, interesting emerging themes could be found including, for instance, the importance of consumption as a way to find synergy across different SDGs. The regional focus areas included Africa, Asia and China – with some of the presentations providing interesting findings with respect to regional priorities.

Subjective Well-Being (SWB) across the SSPs – Robust determinants and simulation results
Johannes EMMERLING, Paula Navarro, Matt Sisco

Modelling integrated SDG pathways: A case study analysis of goals 6, 7, 12 and 13
Simon PARKINSON, Volker Krey, David McCollum, Edward Byers, Ned Djilali, Keywan Riahi

Bending the curve on terrestrial biodiversity loss: A multi-model assessment
David LECLERE, Michael Obersteiner, Rob Alkemade, Rosamunde Almond, Mike Barrett

Air quality, human health, and agriculture co-benefits of climate policy under the Paris Agreement
Toon VANDYCK, Kimon Keramidas, Alban Kitous, Rita Van Dingenen, Joseph V. Spadaro

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PARALLEL SESSION
Attaining multiple SDGs 2

Identifying optimal subsidy portfolios to simultaneously achieve SDG 3 (health), 7 (energy access) and 13 (climate action) in Eastern Africa
Dirk-Jan VAN DE VEN, Jon Sampedro, Francis X. Johnson, Rob Bailis, Aikaterini Forouli, et al

Transition to cleaner cooking solutions in Sub-Saharan Africa
Anteneh G. DAGNACHEW, Paul L. Lucas, Andries F. Hof, Detlef P. van Vuuren

Regional implications of alternative sustainable energy pathways
Stephanie Waldhoff, Ryna YIYUN, Jae Edmonds, Son Kim

Assessment of mitigation options reconciling with sustainable development goals: a case study of China
Jing-Yu LIU, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Toshihiko Masui, et al

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PARALLEL SESSION
Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment 3

Introduction
Bas VAN RUIJVEN, Peter RUSS

Modeling Sectoral Energy End-Use with Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity
Geoffrey BLANFORD, John Bistline

MEDEAS-World: a new IAM framework integrating biophysical and socioeconomic constraints
Iñigo CAPELLÁN-PÉREZ, Ignacio de Blas, Jaime Nieto, Carlos De Castro, Luis Javier Miguel, et al

Integrating intermittent renewables in a global long-term energy model by using representative days
Jacques DESPRÉS, Andreas Schmitz

Integrated Assessment of Benefits of Electricity Trade between Nepal and India
Kirit Parikh, Jyoti Parikh, Probal GHOSH, Vinay Saini

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PARALLEL SESSION
Methodological issues in the field of integrated assessment 4

Replacing temperature targets by subsidiary targets: How accurate are they? – Overshooting vs. economic losses
Lukas Stein, Mohammad M. Khabbazan, Hermann HELD

Variance-based sensitivity analysis as a tool to capture robustness of policy insights from integrated assessment modeling
Elmar KRIEGLER

Multi-Module and Multi-Decision Theory Advances: Introduction of Risk-Specific Discount Rate
Mohammad M. KHABBAZAN

Integrated Assessment Models and dominance criteria for inter-temporal and risky policies
Nicoleta-Anca MATEI

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PARALLEL SESSION
Land-based mitigation strategies 1

Introduction
Steve ROSE, Alexander POPP

Economic potential and trade-offs of assisted afforestation and natural forest regrowth in deep mitigation scenarios
Jonathan C. DOELMAN, Elke Stehfest, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Andries F. Hof, Maarten C. Braakhekke, et al

An integrated assessment of global bioenergy potential from dedicated bio-crops under environmental policies
Wenchao WU, Tomoko Hasegawa, Haruka Ohashi, Naota Hanasaki, Tetsuya Matsui

Impact of land-use mitigations policies on biodiversity and food production
Rémi PRUDHOMME, Adriana DePalma, Patrice Dumas, Ricardo Gonzalez, Harold Levre, et al

GHG emission leakage due to fragmentary AFOLU policies under the Paris Climate Agreement
Miodrag STEVANOVIĆ, Florian Humpenöder, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alexander Popp

The Potential Land-use Impacts from Solar Energy
Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Iñigo Capellan-Perez, Iñaki Arto, Ignazio CAZCARRO, Mikel González-Eguino, et al

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PARALLEL SESSION
Demand for energy and food, including the impact of lifestyle change 1

Introduction
Massimo TAVONI

Sustainable Lifestyle and Behaviour: crucial elements across different disciplines, methodologies and theories
Nicole VAN DEN BERG, Lewis Akenji, Andries Hof, Mariesse van Sluisveld, Vanessa Timmer

Economic drivers of material use to 2060
Ruben BIBAS, Jean Chateau, Rob Dellink, Elisa Lanzi

Heterogeneous electricity consumption in the residential sector: application of an Agent Based Model
Luciana Miu, Oreane Y. EDELENBOSCH, Julia Sachs, Adam Hawkes, Massimo Tavoni

Investigating global diet change dynamics by linking models of human behavior to IAMs
Sibel EKER, Gerhard Reese, Lei Gao, Michael Obersteiner

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 Day 3: Thursday, November 15, 2018

 

The role of the financial sector in decarbonisation pathways
Chair: James EDMONDS (PNNL)

Brief presentations on the role of the financial sector in decarbonisation
Christoph BERTRAM (PIK), Steve ROSE (EPRI), Jakob THOMAE (2ii)

Panel on same topic

 

New visualisation concepts for IAM results 
Chair: Elmar KRIEGLER (PIK)

Introduction to the IAMC 1.5C Scenario Explorer
Volker KREY (IIASA)

Presentation on results in the SENSES project
Elmar KRIEGLER (PIK), Boris MÜLLER (FH-Potsdam)

Presentation on CD-LINKS infographics work
Laurent DROUET (CMCC)

Progress in visualization in the GCAM team
Stephanie WALDHOFF (PNNL)

 

Community activities

Quick overview of current projects
John WEYANT (Stanford)

Lessons from IAMC conference
James EDMONDS (PNNL), Fu SHA (NDRC), Aurelie MÉJEAN (CIRED)

Updates by the Scientific Working Groups
John WEYANT (Chair, Stanford)

 

Scientific Working Group Meetings

Scientific Working Group on Data, including demonstration of the IAMC 1.5C Scenario Explorer and discussion of further development
Volker KREY (IIASA), Kate CALVIN (PNNL)

The burgeoning ecosystem of IAM tools: current status and next steps
Matthew GIDDEN (IIASA)

Scientific Working Group on scenarios
Tom KRAM (PBL), Detlef VAN VUUREN (PBL), Keywan RIAHI (IIASA)

Scientific Working Group on finance
James EDMONDS (PNNL), Elmar KRIEGLER (PIK)

Scientific Working Group on diagnostics
James EDMONDS (PNNL), Elmar KRIEGLER (PIK)

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