Seminar: Using Expert Judgment to Assess Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: Evidence From A Conjoint Choice Survey
April 18, 2006 at 12:00pm
Anna Alberini
Joint Global Change Research Institute
8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201
College Park, MD 20740-2496
College Park, MD 20740-2496
Abstract
We use conjoint choice questions to ask a sample of public health and climate
change experts contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004 (n=100)
which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher
adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These
hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including
per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the
health status of the population, the health care system, and access to
information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita
income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care
coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive
capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to
information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita
income. We use the estimated coefficients and country socio-demographics to
construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data
regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters,
even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and
for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a
novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate
change arena. (Co-authors Aline Chiabai and Lucija Muehlenbachs)
change experts contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004 (n=100)
which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher
adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These
hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including
per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the
health status of the population, the health care system, and access to
information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita
income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care
coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive
capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to
information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita
income. We use the estimated coefficients and country socio-demographics to
construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data
regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters,
even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and
for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a
novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate
change arena. (Co-authors Aline Chiabai and Lucija Muehlenbachs)
About the Speaker
Anna Alberini is an associate professor at the Department of Agricultural and
Resource Economics at the University of Maryland, and SIEV coordinator with
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice. She received a PhD in Economics from the
University of California San Diego. Her work focuses on the valuation of the
health effects of pollution exposures, non-market valuation of environmental
quality, regulation, and land use (esp. policies to influence cleanup and reuse
of contaminated sites). In her spare time, she also does adaptive capacity and
valuation of cultural heritage sites. Alberini's work has appeared in the
Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Risk
Analysis, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Environmental and
Resource Economics, Land Economics, Journal of urban Economics, Regional
Science and Urban Economics, and is about to appear in Global Environmental
Change. Professor Alberini is on the EPA Science Advisory Board and also
serves on the Environmental Economists Network of European Environment Agency.
Her work has been funded by the US EPA, FDA, and the European Commission, among
other entities.
Resource Economics at the University of Maryland, and SIEV coordinator with
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice. She received a PhD in Economics from the
University of California San Diego. Her work focuses on the valuation of the
health effects of pollution exposures, non-market valuation of environmental
quality, regulation, and land use (esp. policies to influence cleanup and reuse
of contaminated sites). In her spare time, she also does adaptive capacity and
valuation of cultural heritage sites. Alberini's work has appeared in the
Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Risk
Analysis, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Environmental and
Resource Economics, Land Economics, Journal of urban Economics, Regional
Science and Urban Economics, and is about to appear in Global Environmental
Change. Professor Alberini is on the EPA Science Advisory Board and also
serves on the Environmental Economists Network of European Environment Agency.
Her work has been funded by the US EPA, FDA, and the European Commission, among
other entities.
