IA-IAV-ESM Workshop: Toward Multi-Model Frameworks Addressing Multi-Sector Dynamics, Risks and Resiliency

May 24, 2016, 8:00am - 5:00pm
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A Workshop sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy for the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Interagency Group on Integrative Modeling and Interagency Coordinating Group

(Invitation-only workshop)

May 24-26, 2016

Workshop Location:

ESSIC and Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD (4th Floor for the Main Workshop Location)

Agenda and Details at the USGCRP Site: http://www.globalchange.gov/about/iwgs/igim-resource

Workshop Background & Objectives

This workshop is one of several efforts convened under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program that are intended to develop concepts for a modeling framework or architecture to couple Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) models; Integrated Assessment (IA) models; and climate, Earth system, hydrology, land use, demography, and other models. The framework will facilitate integration of a wide range of model capabilities to meet a growing societal need to better understand the potential for cascading impacts of interacting societal and environmental change across sectors and scales. The workshop is being coordinated by an Interagency Coordinating Group with technical inputs from a Scientific Steering Group. The agencies that comprise the workshop’s Interagency Coordinating Group share a common interest in the scientific challenges associated with modeling the interactions of human and environmental systems to support risk management.

The workshop addresses the following challenges:

Systematize needs and uses: Explore uses, scale and information dependencies associated with these uses, and specific information needs for categories of problems. Discussions at the workshop are intended to help development of a “use typology” that will identify needs to guide research and development of the framework.

Inventory and evaluate the state of science: Inventory extant and emerging models and frameworks for representing and integrating key processes and interactions. This will include evaluating sector-specific IAV models (ranging from those focused on resource productivity to market interactions), IAMs, a range of approaches for characterizing changes in climate and related physical systems (e.g., hydrology, land cover), and methods for modeling socioeconomic systems and behavior. The workshop will explore data requirements, coupling strategies, mechanisms to capture impact and adaptation information that is not amenable to modeling, approaches for evaluating risk, and model evaluation.

Develop the conceptual framework: Discuss a conceptual framework for research and modeling that defines data and coupling needs by identifying interactions across scales, sectors, and temporal processes essential for addressing the problems and information needs. Participants will also explore the near-term mechanisms and activities for implementation of the framework concept in ongoing and planned model development activities across the USGCRP and interested research community.

Identify research needs/opportunities and options for program development: Explore needed advances in fundamental research on Earth systems, environmental, and societal processes; specialized sector-specific models; and models able to represent interactions and tradeoffs across sectors, systems, and time/spatial scales that can contribute to advancing the state of science. This will include identifying research gaps and priorities for different intended applications and user communities.